Boeing Global Air Cargo Growth Forecast
World's largest freighter manufacturer Boeing has shared its forecast concerning the global air cargo growth. In comparison with the previous forecast Boeing has decreased global air cargo growth by 12 percent, because of the slowing international economy, and logistics companies shift to cheaper transport.
According to Boeing, air cargo traffic each year will increase by 5.2%, while two years ago the forecast was 5.9%. Although fuel prices have a tendency to change constantly, Boeing expects prices not to be significantly higher than current costs.
Current economic situation uncertainty has created a difference of opinion concerning the future of the air cargo business, but the increase in world gross domestic product and industrial production continues to remain the key driving forces of the air cargo market.
By 2013 Boeing forecasts the global fleet of freighters will increase by 84 percent from 1738 to 3198 aircrafts. Over the next 20 years, the largest Boeing freighters 747 and Boeing 777 will account for 36% of the world freighters fleet, which is five percent more than the current levels. The demand for new aircraft will be about 935 aircrafts, valued at $ 250 billion, and the conversion of 1820 passenger aircrafts to freighters.
Expansion of Chinese domestic market by 8 percent, and intra-Asia markets by 6,9 percent will lead to global growth.
Growth rate of Latin America, North America, Europe and the Middle East markets will not be higher than the average growth rate in the world. Thus, it appears that the more mature North America and Europe markets reflect slower and thus lower-than-average traffic growth rates.